Rice Money Managers, Inc.

No One Can Tell What Will Happen: Random Walk Hypothesis

Under the Random Walk Hypothesis, stock price changes are completely independent of each other: Today or yesterday’s price change has nothing to do with tomorrow’s price change.  Bubbles and busts are impossible.

However, for several years in the late 1990s the stock market rose like a rocket and then fell like a rock early 2000 into early 2003.  The idea it has no trends borders on the absurd.

Copyright © 2002 Rice Money Managers, Inc.